Generative Frontier Planning for Adaptive Peer-Referral Recruitment under Covariate-Dependent Arrivals
About
Peer-referral recruitment systems such as respondent-driven sampling are critical for studying and intervening on hidden populations affected by infectious diseases. To accelerate recruitment, public health agencies must adaptively allocate limited referral resources across multiple rounds, where current decisions shape both the number and the covariates of future recruits. Prior work makes this problem tractable by assuming that referrals are drawn i.i.d.\ from a homogeneous population, an assumption that ignores the homophily and shared context that drive real peer recruitment. We instead consider a more realistic model in which both referral capacity and the covariates of newly referred individuals are conditioned on the referrer, learned from data with a censored count model and a conditional generative model. The resulting planning problem is challenging because each candidate allocation induces a different distribution over future recruits. We propose \emph{Generative Frontier Planning} (GFP), a model-based planner that replaces per-step Monte-Carlo sampling with a deterministic backup over a latent covariate-coverage value surrogate. The surrogate is designed so that the expected value of the next frontier depends on the offspring generative model only through finite-dimensional summaries that are amortized offline, and so that the resulting per-round objective is monotone with diminishing returns. Together, these two properties make planning tractable: the deterministic backup eliminates Monte-Carlo sampling, and the diminishing-returns structure lets a marginal greedy allocation achieve a \((1-1/e)\)-approximation for the per-round problem. On a simulation environment calibrated to a real respondent-driven sampling dataset, GFP outperforms random, reinforcement-learning, and i.i.d.\ dynamic-programming baselines across four discount factors.