Engineering Regression Without Real-Data Training: Domain Adaptation for Tabular Foundation Models Using Multi-Dataset Embeddings
About
Predictive modeling in engineering applications has long been dominated by bespoke models and small, siloed tabular datasets, limiting the applicability of large-scale learning approaches. Despite recent progress in tabular foundation models, the resulting synthetic training distributions used for pre-training may not reflect the statistical structure of engineering data, limiting transfer to engineering regression. We introduce TREDBench, a curated collection of 83 real-world tabular regression datasets with expert engineering/non-engineering labels, and use TabPFN 2.5's dataset-level embedding to study domain structure in a common representation space. We find that engineering datasets are partially distinguishable from non-engineering datasets, while standard procedurally generated datasets are highly distinguishable from engineering datasets, revealing a substantial synthetic-real domain gap. To bridge this gap without training on real engineering samples, we propose an embedding-guided synthetic data curation method: we generate and identify "engineering-like" synthetic datasets, and perform continued pre-training of TabPFN 2.5 using only the selected synthetic tasks. Across 35 engineering regression datasets, this synthetic-only adaptation improves predictive accuracy and data efficiency, outperforming TabPFN 2.5 on 29/35 datasets and AutoGluon on 27/35, with mean multiplicative data-efficiency gains of 1.75x and 4.44x, respectively. More broadly, our results indicate that principled synthetic data curation can convert procedural generators into domain-relevant "data engines," enabling foundation models to improve in data-sparse scientific and industrial domains where real data collection is the primary bottleneck.