Tabular Foundation Models Can Do Survival Analysis
About
While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end before the event of interest occurs. We utilize a classification-based framework that reformulates both static and dynamic survival analysis as a series of binary classification problems by discretizing event times. Censored observations are naturally handled as examples with missing labels at certain time points. This classification formulation enables existing tabular foundation models (TFMs) to perform survival analysis through in-context learning without explicit training. In contrast to classical approaches that use binary classifiers to model discrete-time hazards, our approach directly models cumulative failure probabilities, which we find empirically to be more robust to the number of discretization bins by avoiding multiplicative accumulation of per-bin errors. We prove that under standard censoring assumptions, minimizing our binary classification loss recovers the true survival probabilities as the training set size increases. We demonstrate through evaluation across 48 real-world datasets (43 static and 5 dynamic) that off-the-shelf TFMs with this classification formulation outperform classical and deep learning baselines on average over multiple survival metrics.