Ultrasound-based detection and malignancy prediction of breast lesions eligible for biopsy: A multi-center clinical-scenario study using nomograms, large language models, and radiologist evaluation
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To develop and externally validate integrated ultrasound nomograms combining BIRADS features and quantitative morphometric characteristics, and to compare their performance with expert radiologists and state of the art large language models in biopsy recommendation and malignancy prediction for breast lesions. In this retrospective multicenter, multinational study, 1747 women with pathologically confirmed breast lesions underwent ultrasound across three centers in Iran and Turkey. A total of 10 BIRADS and 26 morphological features were extracted from each lesion. A BIRADS, morphometric, and fused nomogram integrating both feature sets was constructed via logistic regression. Three radiologists (one senior, two general) and two ChatGPT variants independently interpreted deidentified breast lesion images. Diagnostic performance for biopsy recommendation (BIRADS 4,5) and malignancy prediction was assessed in internal and two external validation cohorts. In pooled analysis, the fused nomogram achieved the highest accuracy for biopsy recommendation (83.0%) and malignancy prediction (83.8%), outperforming the morphometric nomogram, three radiologists and both ChatGPT models. Its AUCs were 0.901 and 0.853 for the two tasks, respectively. In addition, the performance of the BIRADS nomogram was significantly higher than the morphometric nomogram, three radiologists and both ChatGPT models for biopsy recommendation and malignancy prediction. External validation confirmed the robust generalizability across different ultrasound platforms and populations. An integrated BIRADS morphometric nomogram consistently outperforms standalone models, LLMs, and radiologists in guiding biopsy decisions and predicting malignancy. These interpretable, externally validated tools have the potential to reduce unnecessary biopsies and enhance personalized decision making in breast imaging.