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Game outcome win probability forecasting research benchmarks · SOTA2 Research

Game outcome win probability forecasting

Benchmarks

Dataset NameSOTA MethodSort

Dataset NameSOTA methodMetricTrendResultsLast Updated

NFL regular-season play-by-play 2015-2024 (2024 test)

Direct − Masked-CoT

-0.008Delta (Brier)

5

Jul 2, 2026

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NFL Play-by-Play

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