# Wildfire risk prediction on Wildfire Risk ID

Source: [Wildfire risk prediction on Wildfire Risk ID](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/wildfire-risk-prediction-on-wildfire-risk-id>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-03-09T06:59:19.750Z

Evaluation of model performance for predicting wildfire risk using the Wildfire Risk ID dataset. Metrics include Brier score, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Quadratic Weighted Kappa (QWK).

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Wildfire risk prediction |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | Wildfire Risk ID |
| Metric | Brier Score |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 4 of 4 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [Brier Score](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/wildfire-risk-prediction-on-wildfire-risk-id.md?metric=Brier%20Score>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [MAE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/wildfire-risk-prediction-on-wildfire-risk-id.md?metric=MAE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [QWK](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/wildfire-risk-prediction-on-wildfire-risk-id.md?metric=QWK>): Higher is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | Brier Score | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Climate MLP | 0.029 | Not recorded | 6923e665d6b0dd334292edda |
| CoT Qwen | 0.031 | Not recorded | 6923e665d6b0dd334292edda |
| Qwen | 0.036 | Not recorded | 6923e665d6b0dd334292edda |
| GPT | 0.081 | Not recorded | 6923e665d6b0dd334292edda |

### Climate MLP

Brier Score: 0.029. Result ID: 69ae6f096dbb7075b955faed.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6923e665d6b0dd334292edda.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CoT Qwen

Brier Score: 0.031. Result ID: 69ae6f096dbb7075b955faf0.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6923e665d6b0dd334292edda.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6923e665d6b0dd334292edda.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Reasoning":"Chain-of-Thought"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Qwen

Brier Score: 0.036. Result ID: 69ae6f096dbb7075b955faef.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6923e665d6b0dd334292edda.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa773a1e209131cea71d3c.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GPT

Brier Score: 0.081. Result ID: 69ae6f096dbb7075b955faee.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6923e665d6b0dd334292edda.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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