# Trajectory Prediction on nuScenes (L2 Error and Collision Rate)

Source: [Trajectory Prediction on nuScenes (L2 Error and Collision Rate)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/trajectory-prediction-on-nuscenes-l2-error-and-collision-rate>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-07-03T06:59:36.580Z

Evaluation of trajectory prediction models on the nuScenes dataset, specifically reporting L2 displacement errors (in meters) and collision rates across 1, 2, and 3-second prediction horizons.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Trajectory prediction |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | nuScenes |
| Metric | L2 Error (m) 1s |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 27 of 27 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [L2 Error (m) 1s](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/trajectory-prediction-on-nuscenes-l2-error-and-collision-rate.md?metric=L2%20Error%20(m)%201s>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [L2 Error (m) 2s](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/trajectory-prediction-on-nuscenes-l2-error-and-collision-rate.md?metric=L2%20Error%20(m)%202s>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [L2 Error (m) 3s](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/trajectory-prediction-on-nuscenes-l2-error-and-collision-rate.md?metric=L2%20Error%20(m)%203s>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [L2 Error (m) Avg.](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/trajectory-prediction-on-nuscenes-l2-error-and-collision-rate.md?metric=L2%20Error%20(m)%20Avg.>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [Collision Rate 1s](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/trajectory-prediction-on-nuscenes-l2-error-and-collision-rate.md?metric=Collision%20Rate%201s>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [Collision Rate 2s](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/trajectory-prediction-on-nuscenes-l2-error-and-collision-rate.md?metric=Collision%20Rate%202s>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [Collision Rate 3s](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/trajectory-prediction-on-nuscenes-l2-error-and-collision-rate.md?metric=Collision%20Rate%203s>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [Collision Rate Avg.](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/trajectory-prediction-on-nuscenes-l2-error-and-collision-rate.md?metric=Collision%20Rate%20Avg.>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

## Recorded results

| Method | L2 Error (m) 1s | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DriveTeach-VLA-3B | 0.12 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| Impromptu-VLA-3B | 0.13 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| Impromptu-VLA-7B | 0.13 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| OmniDrive | 0.14 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| EMMA | 0.14 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| Ego-MLP\* | 0.15 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| DriveVLM-Dual | 0.15 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| EMMA (random init) | 0.15 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| BEV-Planner | 0.16 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| VAD | 0.17 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| DriveVLM | 0.18 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| PRIX | 0.26 | Not recorded | 68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758 |
| GPT-4o | 0.28 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| Claude-3.7-Sonnet | 0.28 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| SparseDrive | 0.29 | Not recorded | 68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758 |
| DiffusionDrive | 0.31 | Not recorded | 68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758 |
| Gemini-2.5-Pro | 0.37 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| VAD | 0.41 | Not recorded | 68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758 |
| UniAD | 0.42 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| UniAD | 0.45 | Not recorded | 68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758 |
| Qwen-2.5-VL-7B-Instruct | 0.46 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| LLaMA-3.2-11B-Vision-Instruct | 0.52 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| DeepSeek-VL2-16B | 0.66 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| OccNet | 1.29 | Not recorded | 68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758 |
| ST-P3 | 1.33 | Not recorded | 68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758 |
| Qwen2-VL-7B-Instruct | 1.45 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |
| LLaVA-1.6-Mistral-7B | 1.49 | Not recorded | 6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f |

### DriveTeach-VLA-3B

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.12. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992566d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Specialized Driving Models","Model Size":"3B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Impromptu-VLA-3B

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.13. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992566b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa78f11e209131cea7b58d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Specialized Driving Models","Model Size":"3B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Impromptu-VLA-7B

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.13. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992566c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa78f11e209131cea7b58d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Specialized Driving Models","Model Size":"7B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### OmniDrive

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.14. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925667.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa78031e209131cea76545.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Specialized Driving Models"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### EMMA

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.14. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992566a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7b8a1e209131cea88ffc.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Specialized Driving Models"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Ego-MLP\*

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.15. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925665.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73651e209131cea5c2f1.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/NVlabs/BEV-Planner>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Training-based Driving Specialists (Existing Methods)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DriveVLM-Dual

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.15. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925668.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73e01e209131cea5e9cb.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Specialized Driving Models"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### EMMA (random init)

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.15. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925669.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7b8a1e209131cea88ffc.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Specialized Driving Models","initialization":"random init"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### BEV-Planner

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.16. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925664.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73651e209131cea5c2f1.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/NVlabs/BEV-Planner>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Training-based Driving Specialists (Existing Methods)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### VAD

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.17. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925663.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa70671e209131cea4af09.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/hustvl/VAD>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Training-based Driving Specialists (Existing Methods)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DriveVLM

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.18. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925666.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73e01e209131cea5e9cb.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Specialized Driving Models"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### PRIX

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.26. Result ID: 69ddf80f47f34ce924c5508a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input":"Camera","Backbone":"ResNet-50","FPS":"11.2"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GPT-4o

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.28. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992565a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75681e209131cea67a98.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Generalist VLMs"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Claude-3.7-Sonnet

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.28. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992565b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7b461e209131cea87731.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Generalist VLMs"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### SparseDrive

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.29. Result ID: 69ddf80f47f34ce924c55088.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73621e209131cea5c155.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/swc-17/SparseDrive>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input":"Camera","Backbone":"ResNet-50","FPS":"9.0"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DiffusionDrive

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.31. Result ID: 69ddf80f47f34ce924c55089.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa77ed1e209131cea7612a.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/hustvl/DiffusionDrive>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input":"Camera","Backbone":"ResNet-50","FPS":"8.2"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Gemini-2.5-Pro

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.37. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992565c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7b461e209131cea87731.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Generalist VLMs"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### VAD

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.41. Result ID: 69ddf80f47f34ce924c55087.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa70671e209131cea4af09.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/hustvl/VAD>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input":"Camera","Backbone":"ResNet-50","FPS":"4.5"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### UniAD

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.42. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925662.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6ee71e209131cea42c46.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/OpenDriveLab/UniAD>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Training-based Driving Specialists (Existing Methods)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### UniAD

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.45. Result ID: 69ddf80f47f34ce924c55085.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6ee71e209131cea42c46.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/OpenDriveLab/UniAD>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input":"Camera","Backbone":"ResNet-101","FPS":"1.8"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Qwen-2.5-VL-7B-Instruct

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.46. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925661.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa773a1e209131cea71d3c.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Generalist VLMs","Model Size":"7B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### LLaMA-3.2-11B-Vision-Instruct

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.52. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb339925660.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7b461e209131cea87731.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Generalist VLMs","Model Size":"11B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DeepSeek-VL2-16B

L2 Error (m) 1s: 0.66. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992565f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa763a1e209131cea6bfb0.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Generalist VLMs","Model Size":"16B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### OccNet

L2 Error (m) 1s: 1.29. Result ID: 69ddf80f47f34ce924c55086.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa74321e209131cea60587.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input":"Camera","Backbone":"ResNet-50","FPS":"2.6"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ST-P3

L2 Error (m) 1s: 1.33. Result ID: 69ddf80f47f34ce924c55084.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7a2a1e209131cea81758.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6cfc1e209131cea37225.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/OpenPerceptionX/ST-P3>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input":"Camera","Backbone":"EffNet-b4","FPS":"1.6"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Qwen2-VL-7B-Instruct

L2 Error (m) 1s: 1.45. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992565e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa773a1e209131cea71d3c.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Generalist VLMs","Model Size":"7B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### LLaVA-1.6-Mistral-7B

L2 Error (m) 1s: 1.49. Result ID: 6a475db960b88bb33992565d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a474209143ebdcacacc5c1f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa77071e209131cea709b4.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model Category":"Generalist VLMs","Model Size":"7B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

Page 1 of 1. This is an index page, not the full collection.
