# Time-series Forecasting on Weather (MSE, MAE, NLL) Source: [Time-series Forecasting on Weather (MSE, MAE, NLL)]() Collection index: [llms.txt]() Data updated: 2026-06-01T10:33:13.579Z Evaluation of models performing Time-series Forecasting on the Weather dataset, measured using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Negative Log Likelihood (NLL). A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage. | Scope | Recorded value | | --- | --- | | Task | Time-series Forecasting | | Dataset (including any stated split) | Weather | | Metric | MSE | | Unit | SCALAR | | Direction | Lower is better | | Results loaded | 14 of 14 | | Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark | Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol. ## Metrics - [MSE](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. - [MAE](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. - [NLL](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. ## Recorded results | Method | MSE | Result date | Report paper | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Koopa | 0.1255 | Not recorded | 698575d7c97a0b3e3b5d5e86 | | Proximal Score-based VI | 0.1265 | Not recorded | 698575d7c97a0b3e3b5d5e86 | | ADVI | 0.1273 | Not recorded | 698575d7c97a0b3e3b5d5e86 | | CHARM | 0.222 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | Toto | 0.224 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | TimeMixer++ | 0.226 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | MOMENT | 0.228 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | CHARM | 0.23 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | CHARM | 0.23 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | PatchTST | 0.233 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | Moirai | 0.238 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | Moirai | 0.242 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | Moirai | 0.263 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | | VisionTS | 0.269 | Not recorded | 6a1d123edbd7150506f84222 | ### Koopa MSE: 0.1255. Result ID: 6998ee265698665ec452baa1. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() [Implementation]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"variant":"Vanilla"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Proximal Score-based VI MSE: 0.1265. Result ID: 6998ee265698665ec452baa3. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"variational\_family":"Gaussian"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### ADVI MSE: 0.1273. Result ID: 6998ee265698665ec452baa2. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"variational\_family":"Gaussian"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### CHARM MSE: 0.222. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e65. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Evaluation Protocol":"Fully Fine-tuned"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Toto MSE: 0.224. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e5b. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### TimeMixer++ MSE: 0.226. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e5f. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### MOMENT MSE: 0.228. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e61. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Evaluation Protocol":"Linear Probing"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### CHARM MSE: 0.23. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e63. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Evaluation Protocol":"Linear Probing"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### CHARM MSE: 0.23. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e64. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Evaluation Protocol":"Non-linear Head"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### PatchTST MSE: 0.233. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e62. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Evaluation Protocol":"Linear Probing"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Moirai MSE: 0.238. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e5d. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Variant":"Base"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Moirai MSE: 0.242. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e5c. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Variant":"Small"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Moirai MSE: 0.263. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e5e. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Variant":"Large"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### VisionTS MSE: 0.269. Result ID: 6a1d5fe6fbc373592c174e60. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. Page 1 of 1. This is an index page, not the full collection.