# Time-series forecasting on Synthetic dataset 10,000 examples (test)

Source: [Time-series forecasting on Synthetic dataset 10,000 examples (test)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/time-series-forecasting-on-synthetic-dataset-10-000-examples-test>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-02-26T06:00:05.846Z

Evaluation of Time-series forecasting performance on the test split of the Synthetic dataset containing 10,000 examples, assessed using RMSE, training time, and inference time.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Time-series forecasting |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | Synthetic dataset 10,000 examples (test) |
| Metric | RMSE |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 8 of 8 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [RMSE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/time-series-forecasting-on-synthetic-dataset-10-000-examples-test.md?metric=RMSE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [Training Time (h)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/time-series-forecasting-on-synthetic-dataset-10-000-examples-test.md?metric=Training%20Time%20(h)>): Lower is better; unit: TIME.

- [Inference Time (s)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/time-series-forecasting-on-synthetic-dataset-10-000-examples-test.md?metric=Inference%20Time%20(s)>): Lower is better; unit: TIME.

## Recorded results

| Method | RMSE | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Temporal Fusion Transformer | 0.059 | Not recorded | 694b739a53fdd5c361739b96 |
| Transformer | 0.059 | Not recorded | 694b739a53fdd5c361739b96 |
| Transformer + Permutation Explainer | 0.059 | Not recorded | 694b739a53fdd5c361739b96 |
| Transformer + Custom Masker | 0.059 | Not recorded | 694b739a53fdd5c361739b96 |
| SHAPformer | 0.06 | Not recorded | 694b739a53fdd5c361739b96 |
| XGBoost | 0.119 | Not recorded | 694b739a53fdd5c361739b96 |
| Linear Regression | 0.149 | Not recorded | 694b739a53fdd5c361739b96 |
| Persistence baseline | 0.152 | Not recorded | 694b739a53fdd5c361739b96 |

### Temporal Fusion Transformer

RMSE: 0.059. Result ID: 699942805698665ec4ac94ca.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/694b739a53fdd5c361739b96.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa68621e209131cea1ba49.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"SHAP values":"no"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Transformer

RMSE: 0.059. Result ID: 699942805698665ec4ac94cb.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/694b739a53fdd5c361739b96.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa703d1e209131cea49db1.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/tensorflow/tensor2tensor>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"SHAP values":"no"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Transformer + Permutation Explainer

RMSE: 0.059. Result ID: 699942805698665ec4ac94cc.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/694b739a53fdd5c361739b96.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"SHAP values":"approximate"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Transformer + Custom Masker

RMSE: 0.059. Result ID: 699942805698665ec4ac94cd.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/694b739a53fdd5c361739b96.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"SHAP values":"approximate"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### SHAPformer

RMSE: 0.06. Result ID: 699942805698665ec4ac94ce.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/694b739a53fdd5c361739b96.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/694b739a53fdd5c361739b96.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"SHAP values":"exact"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### XGBoost

RMSE: 0.119. Result ID: 699942805698665ec4ac94c9.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/694b739a53fdd5c361739b96.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa62821e209131ce9f9b56.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/dmlc/xgboost>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"SHAP values":"no"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Linear Regression

RMSE: 0.149. Result ID: 699942805698665ec4ac94c8.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/694b739a53fdd5c361739b96.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"SHAP values":"no"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Persistence baseline

RMSE: 0.152. Result ID: 699942805698665ec4ac94c7.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/694b739a53fdd5c361739b96.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"SHAP values":"no"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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