# Time-series forecasting on COVID-19 Input Length 20 (test) Source: [Time-series forecasting on COVID-19 Input Length 20 (test)]() Collection index: [llms.txt]() Data updated: 2026-06-12T07:53:37.888Z Evaluation of time-series forecasting models using the COVID-19 dataset, specifically focusing on the 'Input Length 20' configuration on the test split, measured by RMSE and MAE across 20, 79, and 320 regions. A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage. | Scope | Recorded value | | --- | --- | | Task | Time-series forecasting | | Dataset (including any stated split) | COVID-19 Input Length 20 (test) | | Metric | RMSE (20 regions) | | Unit | SCALAR | | Direction | Lower is better | | Results loaded | 26 of 26 | | Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark | Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol. ## Metrics - [RMSE (20 regions)](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. - [RMSE (79 regions)](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. - [RMSE (320 regions)](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. - [MAE (20 regions)](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. - [MAE (79 regions)](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. - [MAE (320 regions)](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. ## Recorded results | Method | RMSE (20 regions) | Result date | Report paper | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nlinear | 49.79 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | PatchTST | 50.31 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | Nlinear | 50.42 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | Dlinear | 50.66 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | TimeLLM | 52.64 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | FiLM | 52.91 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | TimeLLM | 53.11 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | SCINet | 53.32 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | PatchTST | 53.37 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | LSTM | 54.39 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | SCINet | 54.73 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | DeepAR | 55 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | FiLM | 55.65 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | TPGNN | 56.21 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | ARIMA | 56.28 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | Informer | 56.44 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | Dlinear | 56.87 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | LSTM | 56.89 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | Informer | 58.05 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | KVAE | 58.95 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | TPGNN | 59.39 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | DeepAR | 59.99 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | KVAE | 60.46 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | ARIMA | 63.92 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | ESE | 65.98 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | | VAR | 67.77 | Not recorded | 6a2b9291d33dfb23e783affe | ### Nlinear RMSE (20 regions): 49.79. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f03b. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### PatchTST RMSE (20 regions): 50.31. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f049. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Nlinear RMSE (20 regions): 50.42. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f03c. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Dlinear RMSE (20 regions): 50.66. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f039. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### TimeLLM RMSE (20 regions): 52.64. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f04c. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### FiLM RMSE (20 regions): 52.91. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f03f. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### TimeLLM RMSE (20 regions): 53.11. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f04b. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### SCINet RMSE (20 regions): 53.32. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f041. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### PatchTST RMSE (20 regions): 53.37. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f04a. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### LSTM RMSE (20 regions): 54.39. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f037. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### SCINet RMSE (20 regions): 54.73. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f042. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### DeepAR RMSE (20 regions): 55. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f043. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### FiLM RMSE (20 regions): 55.65. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f040. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### TPGNN RMSE (20 regions): 56.21. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f047. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### ARIMA RMSE (20 regions): 56.28. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f035. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Informer RMSE (20 regions): 56.44. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f03d. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Dlinear RMSE (20 regions): 56.87. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f03a. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### LSTM RMSE (20 regions): 56.89. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f038. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Informer RMSE (20 regions): 58.05. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f03e. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### KVAE RMSE (20 regions): 58.95. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f045. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"No ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### TPGNN RMSE (20 regions): 59.39. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f048. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### DeepAR RMSE (20 regions): 59.99. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f044. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### KVAE RMSE (20 regions): 60.46. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f046. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### ARIMA RMSE (20 regions): 63.92. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f036. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"ESE Augmentation":"With ESE","Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### ESE RMSE (20 regions): 65.98. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f033. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### VAR RMSE (20 regions): 67.77. Result ID: 6a2bbaf2fbc373592c29f034. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Prediction Horizon":"10"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. Page 1 of 1. This is an index page, not the full collection.