# Short-term time series forecasting on M3 Quarterly

Source: [Short-term time series forecasting on M3 Quarterly](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/short-term-time-series-forecasting-on-m3-quarterly>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-02-26T06:02:59.336Z

Evaluation of models performing short-term time-series forecasting specifically on the Quarterly subset of the M3 dataset.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Short-term time series forecasting |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | M3 Quarterly |
| Metric | SMAPE |
| Unit | PERCENT |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 18 of 18 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [SMAPE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/short-term-time-series-forecasting-on-m3-quarterly.md?metric=SMAPE>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [MRAE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/short-term-time-series-forecasting-on-m3-quarterly.md?metric=MRAE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [MAPE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/short-term-time-series-forecasting-on-m3-quarterly.md?metric=MAPE>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

## Recorded results

| Method | SMAPE | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| F-LLM | 9.06 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| AutoTimes | 9.35 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| FEDformer | 9.48 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| PatchTST | 9.62 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| DLinear | 9.74 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| Reformer | 9.76 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| FPT | 10.13 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| TimesNet | 10.41 | Not recorded | 68fa72061e209131cea54379 |
| TIME-LLM | 11.171 | Not recorded | 68fa72061e209131cea54379 |
| TimesNet | 12.26 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| PatchTST | 12.38 | Not recorded | 68fa72061e209131cea54379 |
| NSformer | 12.56 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| N-HITS | 12.616 | Not recorded | 68fa72061e209131cea54379 |
| FEDformer | 12.927 | Not recorded | 68fa72061e209131cea54379 |
| Informer | 13 | Not recorded | 6992a4679ebc499c97406b40 |
| GPT4TS | 14.453 | Not recorded | 68fa72061e209131cea54379 |
| DLinear | 15.028 | Not recorded | 68fa72061e209131cea54379 |
| N-BEATS | 18.64 | Not recorded | 68fa72061e209131cea54379 |

### F-LLM

SMAPE: 9.06. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339f1.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AutoTimes

SMAPE: 9.35. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339f2.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa757a1e209131cea683a1.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FEDformer

SMAPE: 9.48. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339f8.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6cbf1e209131cea35c29.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### PatchTST

SMAPE: 9.62. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339f5.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6eb21e209131cea4181f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DLinear

SMAPE: 9.74. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339f4.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6d3e1e209131cea38b79.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/cure-lab/LTSF-Linear>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Reformer

SMAPE: 9.76. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339fa.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FPT

SMAPE: 10.13. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339f3.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa70ee1e209131cea4e190.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/One_Fits_All>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TimesNet

SMAPE: 10.41. Result ID: 699216603a6c3148490c7c98.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72061e209131cea54379.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6f041e209131cea43456.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Forecasting horizon":8,"Zero-shot":true}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TIME-LLM

SMAPE: 11.171. Result ID: 699216603a6c3148490c7c96.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72061e209131cea54379.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72061e209131cea54379.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/KimMeen/Time-LLM>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Forecasting horizon":8,"Zero-shot":true}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TimesNet

SMAPE: 12.26. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339f6.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6f041e209131cea43456.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### PatchTST

SMAPE: 12.38. Result ID: 699216603a6c3148490c7c99.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72061e209131cea54379.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6eb21e209131cea4181f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Forecasting horizon":8,"Zero-shot":true}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### NSformer

SMAPE: 12.56. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339f7.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### N-HITS

SMAPE: 12.616. Result ID: 699216603a6c3148490c7c9a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72061e209131cea54379.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6e251e209131cea3e214.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Forecasting horizon":8,"Zero-shot":true}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FEDformer

SMAPE: 12.927. Result ID: 699216603a6c3148490c7c9d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72061e209131cea54379.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6cbf1e209131cea35c29.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Forecasting horizon":8,"Zero-shot":true}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Informer

SMAPE: 13. Result ID: 699a5b6c5698665ec4e339f9.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6992a4679ebc499c97406b40.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa699f1e209131cea23263.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/zhouhaoyi/Informer2020>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Zero-shot forecasting":true,"Train Dataset":"M4"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GPT4TS

SMAPE: 14.453. Result ID: 699216603a6c3148490c7c97.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72061e209131cea54379.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa70ee1e209131cea4e190.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/One_Fits_All>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Forecasting horizon":8,"Zero-shot":true}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DLinear

SMAPE: 15.028. Result ID: 699216603a6c3148490c7c9c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72061e209131cea54379.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6d3e1e209131cea38b79.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/cure-lab/LTSF-Linear>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Forecasting horizon":8,"Zero-shot":true}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### N-BEATS

SMAPE: 18.64. Result ID: 699216603a6c3148490c7c9b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72061e209131cea54379.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa671d1e209131cea145d9.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Forecasting horizon":8,"Zero-shot":true}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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