# Second-stage popularity conversion prediction on Taoke (time-ordered) Source: [Second-stage popularity conversion prediction on Taoke (time-ordered)]() Collection index: [llms.txt]() Data updated: 2026-05-20T08:23:57.003Z Evaluation of second-stage popularity conversion prediction performance using metrics like MSLE, MALE, and Hit@40 on the time-ordered split of the Taoke dataset. A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage. | Scope | Recorded value | | --- | --- | | Task | Second-stage popularity conversion prediction | | Dataset (including any stated split) | Taoke (time-ordered) | | Metric | MSLE | | Unit | SCALAR | | Direction | Lower is better | | Results loaded | 9 of 9 | | Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark | Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol. ## Metrics - [MSLE](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. - [MALE](): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR. - [Hit@40](): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT. ## Recorded results | Method | MSLE | Result date | Report paper | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CasTemp-W/ GTP | 1.867 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f | | CasTemp | 1.934 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f | | CasTemp-W/O P | 3.542 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f | | CasCN | 8.569 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f | | CTCP | 10.072 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f | | MLP | 18.958 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f | | CasFlow | 19.323 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f | | CasDo | 37.652 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f | | DeepHawkes | 41.941 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f | ### CasTemp-W/ GTP MSLE: 1.867. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b28. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Configuration":"Oracle variant using ground-truth y\_pop\_i"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### CasTemp MSLE: 1.934. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b26. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### CasTemp-W/O P MSLE: 3.542. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b27. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Ablation":"without predicted popularity value y\_hat\_pop\_i"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### CasCN MSLE: 8.569. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b22. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### CTCP MSLE: 10.072. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b24. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### MLP MSLE: 18.958. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b20. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### CasFlow MSLE: 19.323. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b23. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### CasDo MSLE: 37.652. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b25. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### DeepHawkes MSLE: 41.941. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b21. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. Page 1 of 1. This is an index page, not the full collection.