# Probabilistic time series forecasting on Solar with Weather FEV leaderboard 1H

Source: [Probabilistic time series forecasting on Solar with Weather FEV leaderboard 1H](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-1h>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-02-26T06:03:03.291Z

Evaluation of models performing Probabilistic time series forecasting on the Solar with Weather FEV leaderboard 1H dataset, assessed using SQL, MASE, WAPE, and WQL metrics.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Probabilistic time series forecasting |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | Solar with Weather FEV leaderboard 1H |
| Metric | SQL |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 8 of 8 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [SQL](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-1h.md?metric=SQL>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [MASE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-1h.md?metric=MASE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [WAPE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-1h.md?metric=WAPE>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [WQL](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-1h.md?metric=WQL>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | SQL | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DiTS | 0.674 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| TabPFN-TS | 0.701 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| Chronos2 | 0.767 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| TimesFM 2.5 | 0.815 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| Toto | 0.876 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| TiRex | 0.9 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| Moirai 2.0 | 0.907 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| Sundial-base | 1.182 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |

### DiTS

SQL: 0.674. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef72.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TabPFN-TS

SQL: 0.701. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef77.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa78dc1e209131cea7add3.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Chronos2

SQL: 0.767. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef73.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c481e209131cea8d633.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TimesFM 2.5

SQL: 0.815. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef75.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72eb1e209131cea59376.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Toto

SQL: 0.876. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef76.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa74141e209131cea5fae8.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TiRex

SQL: 0.9. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef74.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa78f11e209131cea7b577.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Moirai 2.0

SQL: 0.907. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef78.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/691bfdc66750be83fe5ce9c1.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Sundial-base

SQL: 1.182. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef79.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa79071e209131cea7bc74.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

Page 1 of 1. This is an index page, not the full collection.