# Probabilistic time series forecasting on Solar with Weather FEV leaderboard 15T

Source: [Probabilistic time series forecasting on Solar with Weather FEV leaderboard 15T](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-15t>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-02-26T06:03:03.277Z

Evaluation of models performing Probabilistic time series forecasting on the Solar with Weather FEV leaderboard 15T dataset, assessed using SQL, MASE, WAPE, and WQL metrics.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Probabilistic time series forecasting |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | Solar with Weather FEV leaderboard 15T |
| Metric | SQL |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 8 of 8 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [SQL](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-15t.md?metric=SQL>): Higher is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [MASE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-15t.md?metric=MASE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [WAPE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-15t.md?metric=WAPE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [WQL](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-time-series-forecasting-on-solar-with-weather-fev-leaderboard-15t.md?metric=WQL>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | SQL | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sundial-base | 0.963 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| TimesFM 2.5 | 0.906 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| TiRex | 0.846 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| Moirai 2.0 | 0.839 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| Toto | 0.784 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| TabPFN-TS | 0.747 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| Chronos2 | 0.677 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |
| DiTS | 0.649 | Not recorded | 698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415 |

### Sundial-base

SQL: 0.963. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef71.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa79071e209131cea7bc74.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TimesFM 2.5

SQL: 0.906. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef6d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72eb1e209131cea59376.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TiRex

SQL: 0.846. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef6c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa78f11e209131cea7b577.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Moirai 2.0

SQL: 0.839. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef70.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/691bfdc66750be83fe5ce9c1.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Toto

SQL: 0.784. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef6e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa74141e209131cea5fae8.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TabPFN-TS

SQL: 0.747. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef6f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa78dc1e209131cea7add3.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Chronos2

SQL: 0.677. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef6b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c481e209131cea8d633.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DiTS

SQL: 0.649. Result ID: 6998e6955698665ec44aef6a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/698969eec97a0b3e3b5dc415.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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