# Probabilistic forecasting on Turkey Power (test)

Source: [Probabilistic forecasting on Turkey Power (test)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-forecasting-on-turkey-power-test>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-02-26T05:38:47.042Z

Evaluation of models performing Probabilistic Forecasting on the test split of the Turkey Power dataset, assessed using CRPS and MSIS.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Probabilistic forecasting |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | Turkey Power (test) |
| Metric | CRPS |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 9 of 9 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [CRPS](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-forecasting-on-turkey-power-test.md?metric=CRPS>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [MSIS](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-forecasting-on-turkey-power-test.md?metric=MSIS>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | CRPS | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MOIRAI-Large | 0.036 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| TFT | 0.039 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| MOIRAI-Base | 0.04 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| TiDE | 0.046 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| MOIRAI-Small | 0.048 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| PatchTST | 0.054 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| DeepAR | 0.066 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| Seasonal Naive | 0.085 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| AutoARIMA | 0.116 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |

### MOIRAI-Large

CRPS: 0.036. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d719.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"zero-shot","model\_size":"Large"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TFT

CRPS: 0.039. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d71c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa68621e209131cea1ba49.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"full-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### MOIRAI-Base

CRPS: 0.04. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d718.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"zero-shot","model\_size":"Base"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TiDE

CRPS: 0.046. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d71b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72d61e209131cea58d5b.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"full-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### MOIRAI-Small

CRPS: 0.048. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d717.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"zero-shot","model\_size":"Small"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### PatchTST

CRPS: 0.054. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d71a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6eb21e209131cea4181f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"full-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DeepAR

CRPS: 0.066. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d71d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa65651e209131cea09f0b.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"full-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Seasonal Naive

CRPS: 0.085. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d71f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"baseline"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AutoARIMA

CRPS: 0.116. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d71e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"baseline"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

Page 1 of 1. This is an index page, not the full collection.