# Probabilistic forecasting on Istanbul Traffic (test)

Source: [Probabilistic forecasting on Istanbul Traffic (test)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-forecasting-on-istanbul-traffic-test>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-02-26T05:38:47.025Z

Evaluation of models performing Probabilistic Forecasting on the test split of the Istanbul Traffic dataset, measured using CRPS and MSIS.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Probabilistic forecasting |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | Istanbul Traffic (test) |
| Metric | CRPS |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 9 of 9 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [CRPS](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-forecasting-on-istanbul-traffic-test.md?metric=CRPS>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [MSIS](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-forecasting-on-istanbul-traffic-test.md?metric=MSIS>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | CRPS | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DeepAR | 0.108 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| TiDE | 0.11 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| TFT | 0.11 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| MOIRAI-Large | 0.112 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| PatchTST | 0.112 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| MOIRAI-Base | 0.116 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| MOIRAI-Small | 0.173 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| Seasonal Naive | 0.257 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |
| AutoARIMA | 0.589 | Not recorded | 68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec |

### DeepAR

CRPS: 0.108. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d714.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa65651e209131cea09f0b.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"full-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TiDE

CRPS: 0.11. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d712.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72d61e209131cea58d5b.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"full-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TFT

CRPS: 0.11. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d713.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa68621e209131cea1ba49.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"full-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### MOIRAI-Large

CRPS: 0.112. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d710.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"zero-shot","model\_size":"Large"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### PatchTST

CRPS: 0.112. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d711.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6eb21e209131cea4181f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"full-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### MOIRAI-Base

CRPS: 0.116. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d70f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"zero-shot","model\_size":"Base"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### MOIRAI-Small

CRPS: 0.173. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d70e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"zero-shot","model\_size":"Small"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Seasonal Naive

CRPS: 0.257. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d716.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"baseline"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AutoARIMA

CRPS: 0.589. Result ID: 6992b2fb3a6c31484910d715.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa73411e209131cea5b4ec.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"training\_mode":"baseline"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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