# Probabilistic Forecasting on elec

Source: [Probabilistic Forecasting on elec](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-forecasting-on-elec>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-02-26T05:53:02.752Z

Evaluation of models performing Probabilistic Forecasting on the 'elec' dataset, assessed using ND% and wQL%.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Probabilistic Forecasting |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | elec |
| Metric | ND% |
| Unit | PERCENT |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 12 of 12 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [ND%](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-forecasting-on-elec.md?metric=ND%25>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [wQL%](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/probabilistic-forecasting-on-elec.md?metric=wQL%25>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

## Recorded results

| Method | ND% | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| C2FAR-RNN3 | 6 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| C2FAR-RNN2 | 6.09 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| C2FAR-RNN1 | 6.14 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| DeepAR-StudentT | 6.95 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| Seasonal-naïve | 6.97 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| DeepAR-Gaussian | 7.05 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| IQN-RNN | 7.4 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| DeepAR-StudentT | 7.8 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| DeepAR-Binned | 8.21 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| ETS | 8.61 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| SQF-RNN | 9.7 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |
| Naïve | 40.8 | Not recorded | 68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5 |

### C2FAR-RNN3

ND%: 6. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0655.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/huaweicloud/c2far_forecasting>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"Our Implementation"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### C2FAR-RNN2

ND%: 6.09. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0654.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/huaweicloud/c2far_forecasting>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"Our Implementation"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### C2FAR-RNN1

ND%: 6.14. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0653.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/huaweicloud/c2far_forecasting>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"Our Implementation"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DeepAR-StudentT

ND%: 6.95. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0657.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa67961e209131cea1737c.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"\[51\]"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Seasonal-naïve

ND%: 6.97. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0650.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"Our Implementation"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DeepAR-Gaussian

ND%: 7.05. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0652.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"Our Implementation"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### IQN-RNN

ND%: 7.4. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0658.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6a5a1e209131cea27acb.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"\[30\]"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DeepAR-StudentT

ND%: 7.8. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b065a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa67961e209131cea1737c.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"\[30\]"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DeepAR-Binned

ND%: 8.21. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0656.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa67961e209131cea1737c.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"\[51\]"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ETS

ND%: 8.61. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0651.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"Our Implementation"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### SQF-RNN

ND%: 9.7. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b0659.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6a5a1e209131cea27acb.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"\[30\]"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Naïve

ND%: 40.8. Result ID: 6991daf23a6c3148490b064f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa71ac1e209131cea527a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Implementation Source":"Our Implementation"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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