# Price Scenario Prediction on S&P 500 2017 (held-out)

Source: [Price Scenario Prediction on S&P 500 2017 (held-out)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/price-scenario-prediction-on-s-and-p-500-2017-held-out>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-04-28T09:31:05.718Z

Evaluation of models predicting predefined price scenarios for the S&P 500 index using the 2017 held-out data, assessed via Top-1 Scenario Accuracy.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Price Scenario Prediction |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | S&P 500 2017 (held-out) |
| Metric | Top-1 Scenario Accuracy |
| Unit | PERCENT |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 5 of 5 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [Top-1 Scenario Accuracy](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/price-scenario-prediction-on-s-and-p-500-2017-held-out.md?metric=Top-1%20Scenario%20Accuracy>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

## Recorded results

| Method | Top-1 Scenario Accuracy | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Claude Sonnet 3.7 | 27.3 | Not recorded | 69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f |
| Hindsight Preference Optimization (HPO) | 27.1 | Not recorded | 69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f |
| Qwen3-VL-4B | 25.2 | Not recorded | 69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f |
| Qwen3-VL-235B | 23.7 | Not recorded | 69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f |
| Qwen3-VL-4B | 22.1 | Not recorded | 69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f |

### Claude Sonnet 3.7

Top-1 Scenario Accuracy: 27.3. Result ID: 69f07dba47f34ce924d6bc56.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Evaluation Protocol":"zero-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Hindsight Preference Optimization (HPO)

Top-1 Scenario Accuracy: 27.1. Result ID: 69f07dba47f34ce924d6bc5a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Backbone":"Qwen3-VL-4B","Evaluation Protocol":"Hindsight DPO"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Qwen3-VL-4B

Top-1 Scenario Accuracy: 25.2. Result ID: 69f07dba47f34ce924d6bc59.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6927db54d6b0dd3342930f66.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Evaluation Protocol":"SFT (Stage 1)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Qwen3-VL-235B

Top-1 Scenario Accuracy: 23.7. Result ID: 69f07dba47f34ce924d6bc57.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6927db54d6b0dd3342930f66.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Evaluation Protocol":"zero-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Qwen3-VL-4B

Top-1 Scenario Accuracy: 22.1. Result ID: 69f07dba47f34ce924d6bc58.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69f03f2c55a3c32af89fa19f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6927db54d6b0dd3342930f66.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Evaluation Protocol":"zero-shot"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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