# Popularity Prediction on Weibo time-ordered

Source: [Popularity Prediction on Weibo time-ordered](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/popularity-prediction-on-weibo-time-ordered>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-05-20T08:23:57.084Z

Evaluation of popularity prediction performance on the time-ordered split of the Weibo dataset, measured using metrics such as MSLE and MALE.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Popularity Prediction |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | Weibo time-ordered |
| Metric | MSLE |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 7 of 7 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [MSLE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/popularity-prediction-on-weibo-time-ordered.md?metric=MSLE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [MALE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/popularity-prediction-on-weibo-time-ordered.md?metric=MALE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | MSLE | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CasTemp | 1.475 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| CasFlow | 1.685 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| DeepHawkes | 1.751 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| CTCP | 1.89 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| CasCN | 1.981 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| MLP | 2.066 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| CasDO | 2.49 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |

### CasTemp

MSLE: 1.475. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b36.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CasFlow

MSLE: 1.685. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b33.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DeepHawkes

MSLE: 1.751. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b31.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CTCP

MSLE: 1.89. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b34.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6fa41e209131cea46dbf.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CasCN

MSLE: 1.981. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b32.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### MLP

MSLE: 2.066. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b30.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CasDO

MSLE: 2.49. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b35.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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