# Popularity Prediction on Twitter (time-ordered split)

Source: [Popularity Prediction on Twitter (time-ordered split)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/popularity-prediction-on-twitter-time-ordered-split>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-05-20T08:23:57.048Z

Evaluation of models for predicting social media popularity using the time-ordered split of the Twitter dataset, typically measured using MSLE and MALE.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Popularity Prediction |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | Twitter (time-ordered split) |
| Metric | MSLE |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 7 of 7 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [MSLE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/popularity-prediction-on-twitter-time-ordered-split.md?metric=MSLE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [MALE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/popularity-prediction-on-twitter-time-ordered-split.md?metric=MALE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | MSLE | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CasTemp | 1.171 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| CasCN | 1.206 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| CasFlow | 1.329 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| DeepHawkes | 1.408 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| CTCP | 1.446 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| MLP | 1.614 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |
| CasDO | 2.13 | Not recorded | 6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f |

### CasTemp

MSLE: 1.171. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b2f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CasCN

MSLE: 1.206. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b2b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CasFlow

MSLE: 1.329. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b2c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### DeepHawkes

MSLE: 1.408. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b2a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CTCP

MSLE: 1.446. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b2d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6fa41e209131cea46dbf.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### MLP

MSLE: 1.614. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b29.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CasDO

MSLE: 2.13. Result ID: 6a0d6f79fbc373592c056b2e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6902f0e33ef7ccd74e5e415f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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