# Next-month anomaly forecasting on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (held-out period 1980-2023) Source: [Next-month anomaly forecasting on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (held-out period 1980-2023)]() Collection index: [llms.txt]() Data updated: 2026-05-20T07:54:08.125Z Evaluation of models performing Next-month anomaly forecasting using the held-out period (1980-2023) of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 dataset, measured by Test R^2. A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage. | Scope | Recorded value | | --- | --- | | Task | Next-month anomaly forecasting | | Dataset (including any stated split) | NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (held-out period 1980-2023) | | Metric | Test R^2 | | Unit | SCALAR | | Direction | Higher is better | | Results loaded | 18 of 18 | | Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark | Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol. ## Metrics - [Test R^2](): Higher is better; unit: SCALAR. ## Recorded results | Method | Test R^2 | Result date | Report paper | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FSGD | 0.641 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | PPCA | 0.631 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Persistence | 0.601 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | FSGD | 0.592 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | PPCA | 0.576 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Vanilla SGD | 0.549 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Random Proj | 0.542 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Persistence | 0.502 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Vanilla SGD | 0.449 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | PPCA | 0.418 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | FSGD | 0.379 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Random Proj | 0.375 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Random Proj | 0.329 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Vanilla SGD | 0.175 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Persistence | 0.104 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Prev. Mean | -0.581 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Prev. Mean | -0.655 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | | Prev. Mean | -0.965 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 | ### FSGD Test R^2: 0.641. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d5f. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### PPCA Test R^2: 0.631. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d60. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Persistence Test R^2: 0.601. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d61. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### FSGD Test R^2: 0.592. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d6b. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### PPCA Test R^2: 0.576. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d6c. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Vanilla SGD Test R^2: 0.549. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d62. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Random Proj Test R^2: 0.542. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d63. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Persistence Test R^2: 0.502. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d6d. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Vanilla SGD Test R^2: 0.449. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d6e. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### PPCA Test R^2: 0.418. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d72. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### FSGD Test R^2: 0.379. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d71. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Random Proj Test R^2: 0.375. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d6f. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Random Proj Test R^2: 0.329. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d75. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Vanilla SGD Test R^2: 0.175. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d74. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Persistence Test R^2: 0.104. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d73. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Prev. Mean Test R^2: -0.581. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d76. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Prev. Mean Test R^2: -0.655. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d70. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Prev. Mean Test R^2: -0.965. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d64. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction. Page 1 of 1. This is an index page, not the full collection.