# Next-month anomaly forecasting on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (1980-2023)

Source: [Next-month anomaly forecasting on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (1980-2023)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/next-month-anomaly-forecasting-on-ncep-ncar-reanalysis-1-1980-2023>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-05-20T07:54:08.151Z

Evaluation of models performing Next-month anomaly forecasting using the held-out period (1980-2023) of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 dataset, measured using Test R^2.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Next-month anomaly forecasting |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (held-out period 1980-2023) |
| Metric | Test R2 |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 6 of 6 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [Test R2](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/next-month-anomaly-forecasting-on-ncep-ncar-reanalysis-1-1980-2023.md?metric=Test%20R2>): Higher is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | Test R2 | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| FSGD | 0.568 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 |
| PPCA | 0.553 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 |
| Persistence | 0.5 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 |
| Random Proj | 0.487 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 |
| Vanilla SGD | 0.459 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 |
| Prev. Mean | -0.774 | Not recorded | 6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741 |

### FSGD

Test R2: 0.568. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d65.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### PPCA

Test R2: 0.553. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d66.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Persistence

Test R2: 0.5. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d67.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Random Proj

Test R2: 0.487. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d69.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Vanilla SGD

Test R2: 0.459. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d68.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Prev. Mean

Test R2: -0.774. Result ID: 6a0d689cfbc373592c053d6a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a0d3ffff984739ed6737741.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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