# Marginal Log-Likelihood Estimation on DS4 41 Taxa, 1137 Sites

Source: [Marginal Log-Likelihood Estimation on DS4 41 Taxa, 1137 Sites](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/marginal-log-likelihood-estimation-on-ds4-41-taxa-1137-sites>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-02-26T05:51:37.308Z

Evaluation of Marginal Log-Likelihood Estimation performance on the DS4 dataset, comprising 41 Taxa and 1137 Sites.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Marginal Log-Likelihood Estimation |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | DS4 41 Taxa, 1137 Sites |
| Metric | Marginal Log-Likelihood |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 30 of 30 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [Marginal Log-Likelihood](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/marginal-log-likelihood-estimation-on-ds4-41-taxa-1137-sites.md?metric=Marginal%20Log-Likelihood>): Higher is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | Marginal Log-Likelihood | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MrBayes SS (Replication) | -13328.4 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| VBPI-GNN | -13329.94 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| MrBayes SS | -13330.06 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13337.06 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13337.42 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13337.74 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13338.99 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13339.26 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13339.77 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13339.79 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13341.62 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13342.27 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13342.38 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13342.71 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13342.81 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13343.21 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13343.95 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13344.13 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13345.55 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13346.03 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13346.94 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13347.17 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13347.32 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13353.3 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13356.21 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13358.16 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| GeoPhy | -13358.16 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| ϕ-CSMC | -13582.24 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| CSMC | -15019.21 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |
| VCSMC | -17106.1 | Not recorded | 68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62 |

### MrBayes SS (Replication)

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13328.4. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ea2.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### VBPI-GNN

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13329.94. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ea3.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f461e209131ce9e8a35.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### MrBayes SS

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13330.06. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ea1.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13337.06. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb2.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"4","CV":"LOO(3)+"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13337.42. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ebe.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"4","CV":"LOO(3)+"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13337.74. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb1.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"4","CV":"LOO(3)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13338.99. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eab.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"4","CV":"LOO(3)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13339.26. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ebd.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"4","CV":"LOO(3)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13339.77. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb7.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"4","CV":"LOO(3)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13339.79. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eac.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"4","CV":"LOO(3)+"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13341.62. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eaa.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"4","CV":"LAX"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13342.27. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb0.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"4","CV":"LAX"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13342.38. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb8.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"4","CV":"LOO(3)+"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13342.71. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ebc.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"4","CV":"LAX"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13342.81. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb6.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"4","CV":"LAX"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13343.21. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eaf.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"2","CV":"LOO(3)+"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13343.95. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ebb.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"2","CV":"LOO(3)+"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13344.13. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eba.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"2","CV":"LOO(3)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13345.55. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ea8.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"2","CV":"LOO(3)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13346.03. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ea9.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"2","CV":"LOO(3)+"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13346.94. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb4.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"2","CV":"LOO(3)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13347.17. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eae.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"2","CV":"LOO(3)"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13347.32. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb5.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"2","CV":"LOO(3)+"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13353.3. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ead.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"2","CV":"LAX"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13356.21. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ea7.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Normal (N)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"2","CV":"LAX"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13358.16. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb3.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"diagonal","Dimension":"2","CV":"LAX"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### GeoPhy

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13358.16. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711eb9.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/m1m0r1/geophy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Distribution":"Wrapped Normal (WN)","Covariance Matrix":"full","Dimension":"2","CV":"LAX"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ϕ-CSMC

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -13582.24. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ea6.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f491e209131ce9e8b8a.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/Lagergren-Lab/VaiPhy>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### CSMC

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -15019.21. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ea4.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### VCSMC

Marginal Log-Likelihood: -17106.1. Result ID: 698bc1527a967eddb7711ea5.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa5f4d1e209131ce9e8d62.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6a281e209131cea26715.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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