# Long-term Forecasting on Weather 5% few-shot

Source: [Long-term Forecasting on Weather 5% few-shot](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/long-term-forecasting-on-weather-5-percent-few-shot>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-04-07T10:28:34.558Z

Evaluation of models performing Long-term Forecasting on the Weather dataset using a 5% few-shot setup, measured using MSE and MAE.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Long-term Forecasting |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | Weather 5% few-shot |
| Metric | MSE |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 32 of 32 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [MSE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/long-term-forecasting-on-weather-5-percent-few-shot.md?metric=MSE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

- [MAE](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/long-term-forecasting-on-weather-5-percent-few-shot.md?metric=MAE>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | MSE | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| FEDPM | 0.179 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FFTS | 0.193 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FL-PatchTST | 0.196 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| UniTime | 0.209 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| Time-FFM | 0.214 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| Cen-PatchTST | 0.221 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FEDPM | 0.223 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FL-iTransformer | 0.225 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FFTS | 0.241 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FL-PatchTST | 0.25 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| TOTEM | 0.253 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| UniTime | 0.258 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| Time-FFM | 0.264 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| Cen-PatchTST | 0.271 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FEDPM | 0.279 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| TOTEM | 0.281 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FFTS | 0.294 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FL-iTransformer | 0.296 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| UniTime | 0.306 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| Time-FFM | 0.31 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| Cen-PatchTST | 0.318 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| TOTEM | 0.323 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FL-PatchTST | 0.34 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FEDPM | 0.347 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| TOTEM | 0.361 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FFTS | 0.372 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| UniTime | 0.38 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| Time-FFM | 0.381 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FL-iTransformer | 0.388 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| Cen-PatchTST | 0.391 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FL-PatchTST | 0.416 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |
| FL-iTransformer | 0.51 | Not recorded | 69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5 |

### FEDPM

MSE: 0.179. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f34.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"96"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FFTS

MSE: 0.193. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f36.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa76241e209131cea6b757.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"96"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FL-PatchTST

MSE: 0.196. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f38.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"96"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### UniTime

MSE: 0.209. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f3a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72431e209131cea55612.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/liuxu77/UniTime>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"96"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Time-FFM

MSE: 0.214. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f35.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa751e1e209131cea65e3f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"96"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Cen-PatchTST

MSE: 0.221. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f3b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"96"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FEDPM

MSE: 0.223. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f3c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"192"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FL-iTransformer

MSE: 0.225. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f37.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"96"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FFTS

MSE: 0.241. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f3e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa76241e209131cea6b757.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"192"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FL-PatchTST

MSE: 0.25. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f40.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"192"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TOTEM

MSE: 0.253. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f39.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa766a1e209131cea6ccfb.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"96"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### UniTime

MSE: 0.258. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f42.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72431e209131cea55612.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/liuxu77/UniTime>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"192"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Time-FFM

MSE: 0.264. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f3d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa751e1e209131cea65e3f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"192"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Cen-PatchTST

MSE: 0.271. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f43.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"192"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FEDPM

MSE: 0.279. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f44.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"336"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TOTEM

MSE: 0.281. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f41.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa766a1e209131cea6ccfb.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"192"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FFTS

MSE: 0.294. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f46.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa76241e209131cea6b757.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"336"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FL-iTransformer

MSE: 0.296. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f3f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"192"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### UniTime

MSE: 0.306. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f4a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72431e209131cea55612.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/liuxu77/UniTime>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"336"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Time-FFM

MSE: 0.31. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f45.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa751e1e209131cea65e3f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"336"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Cen-PatchTST

MSE: 0.318. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f4b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"336"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TOTEM

MSE: 0.323. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f49.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa766a1e209131cea6ccfb.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"336"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FL-PatchTST

MSE: 0.34. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f48.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"336"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FEDPM

MSE: 0.347. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f4c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"720"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TOTEM

MSE: 0.361. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f51.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa766a1e209131cea6ccfb.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"720"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FFTS

MSE: 0.372. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f4e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa76241e209131cea6b757.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"720"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### UniTime

MSE: 0.38. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f52.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa72431e209131cea55612.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/liuxu77/UniTime>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"720"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Time-FFM

MSE: 0.381. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f4d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa751e1e209131cea65e3f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"720"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FL-iTransformer

MSE: 0.388. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f47.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"336"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Cen-PatchTST

MSE: 0.391. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f53.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"Cen-FM","Horizon":"720"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FL-PatchTST

MSE: 0.416. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f50.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"720"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### FL-iTransformer

MSE: 0.51. Result ID: 69d4dc5047f34ce924bd4f4f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69d48fb27d0172140ec744a5.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"FL-FM","Horizon":"720"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

Page 1 of 1. This is an index page, not the full collection.