# Human move prediction on 12,000 balanced bullet decision points (Elo 2500-2700)

Source: [Human move prediction on 12,000 balanced bullet decision points (Elo 2500-2700)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/human-move-prediction-on-12-000-balanced-bullet-decision-points-elo-2500-2700>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-04-01T08:42:42.095Z

Evaluation of model performance on predicting human moves within the specific subset of balanced bullet decision points rated between Elo 2500 and 2700, measured by Top-1 accuracy.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Human move prediction |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | 12,000 balanced bullet decision points (Elo 2500-2700) |
| Metric | Top-1 Accuracy |
| Unit | PERCENT |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 3 of 3 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [Top-1 Accuracy](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/human-move-prediction-on-12-000-balanced-bullet-decision-points-elo-2500-2700.md?metric=Top-1%20Accuracy>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

## Recorded results

| Method | Top-1 Accuracy | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| V2.2 final | 56.2 | Not recorded | 69cca69e0636e5bf4afcbc11 |
| Maia-2 blitz | 51.4 | Not recorded | 69cca69e0636e5bf4afcbc11 |
| Maia-2 rapid | 50.7 | Not recorded | 69cca69e0636e5bf4afcbc11 |

### V2.2 final

Top-1 Accuracy: 56.2. Result ID: 69ccda4147f34ce924b69979.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69cca69e0636e5bf4afcbc11.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69cca69e0636e5bf4afcbc11.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input format":"full preceding move sequence"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Maia-2 blitz

Top-1 Accuracy: 51.4. Result ID: 69ccda4147f34ce924b6997b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69cca69e0636e5bf4afcbc11.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75751e209131cea68118.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input format":"FEN string"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Maia-2 rapid

Top-1 Accuracy: 50.7. Result ID: 69ccda4147f34ce924b6997a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/69cca69e0636e5bf4afcbc11.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75751e209131cea68118.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Input format":"FEN string"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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