# Forecast-level Accuracy Correlation on Forecasting Indicators Dataset Season 3 to 4 (S3→S4) Source: [Forecast-level Accuracy Correlation on Forecasting Indicators Dataset Season 3 to 4 (S3→S4)]() Collection index: [llms.txt]() Data updated: 2026-07-01T06:38:13.782Z Evaluation of model performance using Pearson correlation (r) to measure the accuracy correlation at the forecast level on the Forecasting Indicators Dataset Season 3 to 4 (S3→S4). A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage. | Scope | Recorded value | | --- | --- | | Task | Forecast-level Accuracy Correlation | | Dataset (including any stated split) | Forecasting Indicators Dataset Season 3 to 4 (S3→S4) | | Metric | Pearson Correlation (r) | | Unit | SCALAR | | Direction | Higher is better | | Results loaded | 14 of 14 | | Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark | Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol. ## Metrics - [Pearson Correlation (r)](): Higher is better; unit: SCALAR. ## Recorded results | Method | Pearson Correlation (r) | Result date | Report paper | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Past accuracy | 0.71 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | EQM forecaster composite | 0.57 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Pre-LLM forecaster composite | 0.52 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Update size | 0.5 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Forecast count | 0.45 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Word count | 0.23 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | EQM forecast composite | 0.15 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Past accuracy | 0.12 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Update size | 0.11 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | EQM forecaster composite | 0.09 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Pre-LLM forecaster composite | 0.07 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Pre-LLM forecast composite | 0.05 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Forecast count | 0.05 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | | Word count | 0.01 | Not recorded | 6a449f01e0224bd4f4992f93 | ### Past accuracy Pearson Correlation (r): 0.71. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8fa1. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from previous season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### EQM forecaster composite Pearson Correlation (r): 0.57. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8fa4. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from current season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Pre-LLM forecaster composite Pearson Correlation (r): 0.52. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8fa5. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from current season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Update size Pearson Correlation (r): 0.5. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8fa3. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from current season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Forecast count Pearson Correlation (r): 0.45. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8fa2. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from current season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Word count Pearson Correlation (r): 0.23. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8fa6. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from current season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### EQM forecast composite Pearson Correlation (r): 0.15. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8f85. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecast-level"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Past accuracy Pearson Correlation (r): 0.12. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8f88. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from previous season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Update size Pearson Correlation (r): 0.11. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8f8a. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from current season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### EQM forecaster composite Pearson Correlation (r): 0.09. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8f8b. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from current season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Pre-LLM forecaster composite Pearson Correlation (r): 0.07. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8f8c. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from current season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Pre-LLM forecast composite Pearson Correlation (r): 0.05. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8f86. [Reporting paper]() [Method origin paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecast-level"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Forecast count Pearson Correlation (r): 0.05. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8f89. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecaster-level from current season data"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. ### Word count Pearson Correlation (r): 0.01. Result ID: 6a44b5d573d097d845bd8f87. [Reporting paper]() Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Calculation Notes":"Forecast-level"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction. Page 1 of 1. 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