# Forecast-based Reasoning on ODTQA-FoRe 1.0 (test)

Source: [Forecast-based Reasoning on ODTQA-FoRe 1.0 (test)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/forecast-based-reasoning-on-odtqa-fore-1-0-test>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-06-02T13:27:50.881Z

Evaluation of model performance on the Forecast-based Reasoning task using the ODTQA-FoRe 1.0 (test) split, reporting Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1 scores.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Forecast-based Reasoning |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | ODTQA-FoRe 1.0 (test) |
| Metric | Accuracy |
| Unit | PERCENT |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 10 of 10 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [Accuracy](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/forecast-based-reasoning-on-odtqa-fore-1-0-test.md?metric=Accuracy>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [Precision](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/forecast-based-reasoning-on-odtqa-fore-1-0-test.md?metric=Precision>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [Recall](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/forecast-based-reasoning-on-odtqa-fore-1-0-test.md?metric=Recall>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [F1 Score](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/forecast-based-reasoning-on-odtqa-fore-1-0-test.md?metric=F1%20Score>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

## Recorded results

| Method | Accuracy | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TimeFore | 36.31 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |
| TimeFore | 35.46 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |
| TimeFore | 31.59 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |
| TimeFore | 31.37 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |
| TimeFore | 27.8 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |
| Vanilla | 24.45 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |
| Vanilla | 23.59 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |
| Vanilla | 21.6 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |
| Vanilla | 21.52 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |
| Vanilla | 12.19 | Not recorded | 6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f |

### TimeFore

Accuracy: 36.31. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb37.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"Qwen3 Next 80B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TimeFore

Accuracy: 35.46. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb3d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"GLM4.5 Air"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TimeFore

Accuracy: 31.59. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb35.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"Qwen3 30B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TimeFore

Accuracy: 31.37. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb3b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"GPT OSS 120B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TimeFore

Accuracy: 27.8. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb39.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"GPT OSS 20B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Vanilla

Accuracy: 24.45. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb36.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"Qwen3 Next 80B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Vanilla

Accuracy: 23.59. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb3c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"GLM4.5 Air"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Vanilla

Accuracy: 21.6. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb3a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"GPT OSS 120B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Vanilla

Accuracy: 21.52. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb38.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"GPT OSS 20B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Vanilla

Accuracy: 12.19. Result ID: 6a1eda26fbc373592c1aeb34.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a1e6426dbd7150506f8580f.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Model":"Qwen3 30B"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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