# Failure Prediction on CIFAR-10-LT (test)

Source: [Failure Prediction on CIFAR-10-LT (test)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-02-26T05:25:20.764Z

Evaluation of model failure prediction and calibration performance on the test split of the CIFAR-10 Long Tail (LT) dataset, segmented across head, medium, and tail classes using AUC and ECE metrics.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Failure Prediction |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | CIFAR-10-LT (test) |
| Metric | AUC (All) |
| Unit | PERCENT |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 9 of 9 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [AUC (All)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=AUC%20(All)>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [AUC (Head)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=AUC%20(Head)>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [AUC (Med)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=AUC%20(Med)>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [AUC (Tail)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=AUC%20(Tail)>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [FPR-95 (All)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=FPR-95%20(All)>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [FPR-95 (Head)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=FPR-95%20(Head)>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [FPR-95 (Med)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=FPR-95%20(Med)>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [FPR-95 (Tail)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=FPR-95%20(Tail)>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [ECE (All)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=ECE%20(All)>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [ECE (Head)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=ECE%20(Head)>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [ECE (Med)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=ECE%20(Med)>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [ECE (Tail)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/failure-prediction-on-cifar-10-lt-test.md?metric=ECE%20(Tail)>): Lower is better; unit: PERCENT.

## Recorded results

| Method | AUC (All) | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| OLTR | 83.9 | Not recorded | 68fa6c191e209131cea322d9 |
| TLC | 83.9 | Not recorded | 68fa6c191e209131cea322d9 |
| tau-norm | 83.8 | Not recorded | 68fa6c191e209131cea322d9 |
| cRT | 83.7 | Not recorded | 68fa6c191e209131cea322d9 |
| TLC | 83.7 | Not recorded | 68fa6c191e209131cea322d9 |
| TLC | 83.5 | Not recorded | 68fa6c191e209131cea322d9 |
| LDAM-DRW | 83.1 | Not recorded | 68fa6c191e209131cea322d9 |
| RIDE | 82.9 | Not recorded | 68fa6c191e209131cea322d9 |
| Focal Loss | 75.7 | Not recorded | 68fa6c191e209131cea322d9 |

### OLTR

AUC (All): 83.9. Result ID: 698ed352ffc3901de0a1c381.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa659f1e209131cea0b4aa.md>)

[Implementation](<https://liuziwei7.github.io/projects/LongTail.html>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TLC

AUC (All): 83.9. Result ID: 698ed352ffc3901de0a1c388.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/lblaoke/TLC>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of experts":4}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### tau-norm

AUC (All): 83.8. Result ID: 698ed352ffc3901de0a1c383.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa671b1e209131cea144a9.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/facebookresearch/classifier-balancing>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### cRT

AUC (All): 83.7. Result ID: 698ed352ffc3901de0a1c384.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa671b1e209131cea144a9.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/facebookresearch/classifier-balancing>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TLC

AUC (All): 83.7. Result ID: 698ed352ffc3901de0a1c387.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/lblaoke/TLC>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of experts":3}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### TLC

AUC (All): 83.5. Result ID: 698ed352ffc3901de0a1c386.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/lblaoke/TLC>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of experts":2}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### LDAM-DRW

AUC (All): 83.1. Result ID: 698ed352ffc3901de0a1c382.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa66901e209131cea10e0f.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/kaidic/LDAM-DRW>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### RIDE

AUC (All): 82.9. Result ID: 698ed352ffc3901de0a1c385.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c7b1e209131cea3436b.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/frank-xwang/RIDE-LongTailRecognition>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Focal Loss

AUC (All): 75.7. Result ID: 698ed352ffc3901de0a1c380.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa6c191e209131cea322d9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa640c1e209131cea02556.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/facebookresearch/Detectron>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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