# Early Warning Signal Detection on NOAA OISST Indo-Pacific 1982–2022 4° grid v2

Source: [Early Warning Signal Detection on NOAA OISST Indo-Pacific 1982–2022 4° grid v2](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/early-warning-signal-detection-on-noaa-oisst-indo-pacific-1982-2022-4-grid-v2>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-06-17T07:11:24.708Z

Evaluation of models designed for Early Warning Signal Detection using the NOAA OISST dataset covering the Indo-Pacific region from 1982 to 2022 at a 4° resolution. Metrics include AUROC, AUPRC, IoU, and lead time analysis.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Early Warning Signal Detection |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | NOAA OISST Indo-Pacific 1982–2022 4° grid v2 (historical observation) |
| Metric | AUROC |
| Unit | PERCENT |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 4 of 4 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [AUROC](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/early-warning-signal-detection-on-noaa-oisst-indo-pacific-1982-2022-4-grid-v2.md?metric=AUROC>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [AUPRC](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/early-warning-signal-detection-on-noaa-oisst-indo-pacific-1982-2022-4-grid-v2.md?metric=AUPRC>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [IoU](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/early-warning-signal-detection-on-noaa-oisst-indo-pacific-1982-2022-4-grid-v2.md?metric=IoU>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [Lead Time (mo)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/early-warning-signal-detection-on-noaa-oisst-indo-pacific-1982-2022-4-grid-v2.md?metric=Lead%20Time%20(mo)>): Higher is better; unit: TIME.

## Recorded results

| Method | AUROC | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ST-CND | 72 | Not recorded | 6a3229f7d33dfb23e783e9f9 |
| Climate net | 69.3 | Not recorded | 6a3229f7d33dfb23e783e9f9 |
| EWS | 67.9 | Not recorded | 6a3229f7d33dfb23e783e9f9 |
| Moran’s I | 64.8 | Not recorded | 6a3229f7d33dfb23e783e9f9 |

### ST-CND

AUROC: 72. Result ID: 6a32483efbc373592c2f5095.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a3229f7d33dfb23e783e9f9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a3229f7d33dfb23e783e9f9.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Estimator":"KSG"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Climate net

AUROC: 69.3. Result ID: 6a32483efbc373592c2f5094.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a3229f7d33dfb23e783e9f9.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa23ad2c2a37601939acc6.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### EWS

AUROC: 67.9. Result ID: 6a32483efbc373592c2f5092.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a3229f7d33dfb23e783e9f9.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Type":"regional SST index"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Moran’s I

AUROC: 64.8. Result ID: 6a32483efbc373592c2f5093.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a3229f7d33dfb23e783e9f9.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: Not recorded. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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