# Conformal Prediction on 5-class synthetic data Hard Bin, r\* \<= 0.5

Source: [Conformal Prediction on 5-class synthetic data Hard Bin, r\* \<= 0.5](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/conformal-prediction-on-5-class-synthetic-data-hard-bin-r-0-5>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-06-16T07:01:15.191Z

Evaluation of Conformal Prediction performance on the 5-class synthetic dataset variant characterized by the hard binning condition (r\* \<= 0.5). Metrics evaluated include Coverage and Average Set Size.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Conformal Prediction |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | 5-class synthetic data Hard Bin, r\* \<= 0.5 |
| Metric | Coverage |
| Unit | PERCENT |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 30 of 30 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [Coverage](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/conformal-prediction-on-5-class-synthetic-data-hard-bin-r-0-5.md?metric=Coverage>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [Average Set Size](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/conformal-prediction-on-5-class-synthetic-data-hard-bin-r-0-5.md?metric=Average%20Set%20Size>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | Coverage | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ACP-ACC | 92.8 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 91.7 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 91.3 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-ACC | 90.7 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-ACC | 90.2 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 87 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 86.8 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-ACC | 84.9 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 84.8 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 84 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 81.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 77.7 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-ACC | 74.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 73.2 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 70 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 69.7 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 68.7 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 67.6 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 66.8 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 56.2 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 48.4 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 46.5 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 46.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 45.5 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 45.4 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 45.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 44.9 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 44.8 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 44.6 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 43.3 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 92.8. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e9.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 91.7. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1ea.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 91.3. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1f0.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 90.7. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1ef.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 90.2. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e3.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 87. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1f1.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 86.8. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1eb.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 84.9. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1dd.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 84.8. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e4.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 84. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e5.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 81.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1db.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 77.7. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1df.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 74.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1d7.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 73.2. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1f3.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 70. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e1.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 69.7. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1ed.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 68.7. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1de.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 67.6. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e7.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 66.8. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1d9.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 56.2. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1d8.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 48.4. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1da.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 46.5. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1ee.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 46.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1f4.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 45.5. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1ec.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 45.4. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e0.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 45.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1dc.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 44.9. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e2.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 44.8. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e8.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 44.6. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1f2.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 43.3. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca1e6.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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