# Conformal Prediction on 5-class synthetic data Example 2 covariate shift a=0.5 Hard Bin (r\* \<= 0.5)

Source: [Conformal Prediction on 5-class synthetic data Example 2 covariate shift a=0.5 Hard Bin (r\* \<= 0.5)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/conformal-prediction-on-5-class-synthetic-data-example-2-covariate-shift-a-0-5-hard-bin-r-0-5>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-06-16T07:01:14.579Z

Evaluation of Conformal Prediction performance on a specific synthetic dataset variant characterized by 5 classes, a covariate shift parameter a=0.5, and a hard binning condition (r\* \<= 0.5). Metrics include Coverage and Prediction Interval Size.

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Conformal Prediction |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | 5-class synthetic data Example 2 covariate shift a=0.5 Hard Bin (r\* \<= 0.5) |
| Metric | Coverage |
| Unit | PERCENT |
| Direction | Higher is better |
| Results loaded | 30 of 30 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [Coverage](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/conformal-prediction-on-5-class-synthetic-data-example-2-covariate-shift-a-0-5-hard-bin-r-0-5.md?metric=Coverage>): Higher is better; unit: PERCENT.

- [Prediction Interval Size](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/conformal-prediction-on-5-class-synthetic-data-example-2-covariate-shift-a-0-5-hard-bin-r-0-5.md?metric=Prediction%20Interval%20Size>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | Coverage | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ACP-ACC | 85.6 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 84.9 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 83.8 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 82.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 82.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 81.9 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-ACC | 81.9 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-ACC | 81.7 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-ACC | 81.7 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 81.5 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-ACC | 81.4 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 79.2 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-MC | 79 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 78.2 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 78.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 78 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 77.5 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| ACP-AEC | 77.2 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 76.7 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 76.3 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 76.2 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 76.2 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 76.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| AdaTS | 75.8 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 74.6 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 74.4 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 74.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 74.1 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Standard | 73.9 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |
| Retrain | 73 | Not recorded | 6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51 |

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 85.6. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca05a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 84.9. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca074.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 83.8. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca06e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 82.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca068.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 82.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca076.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 81.9. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca05e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 81.9. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca060.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 81.7. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca06c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 81.7. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca072.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 81.5. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca062.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-ACC

Coverage: 81.4. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca066.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 79.2. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca073.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-MC

Coverage: 79. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca05c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 78.2. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca05b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 78.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca070.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 78. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca06d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 77.5. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca061.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### ACP-AEC

Coverage: 77.2. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca067.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 76.7. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca063.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 76.3. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca05d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 76.2. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca069.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 76.2. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca075.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 76.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca06a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### AdaTS

Coverage: 75.8. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca06f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75031e209131cea6542d.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 74.6. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca065.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 74.4. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca077.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"5000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 74.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca05f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"200"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 74.1. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca071.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"2000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Standard

Coverage: 73.9. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca06b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"1000"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### Retrain

Coverage: 73. Result ID: 6a30f4b7fbc373592c2ca064.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/6a30d896d33dfb23e783cc51.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Number of Calibration Samples":"500"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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