# Bayesian Assessment of Sycophancy on BASIL Third-p. belief setting 1.0 (test)

Source: [Bayesian Assessment of Sycophancy on BASIL Third-p. belief setting 1.0 (test)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/bayesian-assessment-of-sycophancy-on-basil-third-p-belief-setting-1-0-test>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2026-04-21T07:04:33.684Z

Evaluation of model performance on the Bayesian Assessment of Sycophancy task using the test split of the BASIL Third-p. belief setting 1.0 dataset, measured by Bayesian error (RMSE).

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

| Scope | Recorded value |
| --- | --- |
| Task | Bayesian Assessment of Sycophancy |
| Dataset (including any stated split) | BASIL Third-p. belief setting 1.0 (test) |
| Metric | Bayesian Error (RMSE) |
| Unit | SCALAR |
| Direction | Lower is better |
| Results loaded | 18 of 18 |
| Coverage | All results currently returned for this benchmark |

Evaluation settings may differ between results. The original papers and recorded configurations are needed to establish comparability. A shared metric name alone does not establish an identical protocol.

## Metrics

- [Bayesian Error (RMSE)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/bayesian-assessment-of-sycophancy-on-basil-third-p-belief-setting-1-0-test.md?metric=Bayesian%20Error%20(RMSE)>): Lower is better; unit: SCALAR.

## Recorded results

| Method | Bayesian Error (RMSE) | Result date | Report paper |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| gpt-4o-mini | 0.16 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| gpt-4o-mini | 0.189 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 | 0.23 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| phi-4:14b | 0.258 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 | 0.259 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| phi-4:14b | 0.259 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| gpt-4o-mini | 0.271 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| llama-3.2:3b | 0.292 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| llama-3.2:1b | 0.302 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| llama-3.2:1b | 0.309 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| llama-3.2:3b | 0.312 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| llama-3.2:3b | 0.327 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| llama-3.2:1b | 0.358 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| mistral:7b | 0.386 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| phi-4:14b | 0.443 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| mistral:7b | 0.449 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| claude-haiku-4-5 | 0.467 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |
| mistral:7b | 0.498 | Not recorded | 68fa7c421e209131cea8d346 |

### gpt-4o-mini

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.16. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb41.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa727a1e209131cea56a1e.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/openai/evals>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"5"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### gpt-4o-mini

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.189. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb35.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa727a1e209131cea56a1e.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/openai/evals>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"1"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### claude-haiku-4-5

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.23. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb42.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"5"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### phi-4:14b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.258. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb34.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa76241e209131cea6b756.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"1"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### claude-haiku-4-5

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.259. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb36.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"1"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### phi-4:14b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.259. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb40.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa76241e209131cea6b756.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"5"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### gpt-4o-mini

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.271. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb3b.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa727a1e209131cea56a1e.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/openai/evals>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Hybrid"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### llama-3.2:3b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.292. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb38.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75d11e209131cea6a028.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/meta-llama/llama-agentic-system>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Hybrid"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### llama-3.2:1b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.302. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb37.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75d11e209131cea6a028.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/meta-llama/llama-agentic-system>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Hybrid"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### llama-3.2:1b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.309. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb3d.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75d11e209131cea6a028.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/meta-llama/llama-agentic-system>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"5"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### llama-3.2:3b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.312. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb3e.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75d11e209131cea6a028.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/meta-llama/llama-agentic-system>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"5"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### llama-3.2:3b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.327. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb32.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75d11e209131cea6a028.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/meta-llama/llama-agentic-system>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"1"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### llama-3.2:1b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.358. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb31.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa75d11e209131cea6a028.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/meta-llama/llama-agentic-system>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"1"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### mistral:7b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.386. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb3f.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa70d61e209131cea4d909.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/mistralai/mistral-src>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"5"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### phi-4:14b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.443. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb3a.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa76241e209131cea6b756.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Hybrid"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### mistral:7b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.449. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb33.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa70d61e209131cea4d909.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/mistralai/mistral-src>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Direct Probing","Number of Samples":"1"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### claude-haiku-4-5

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.467. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb3c.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Hybrid"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

### mistral:7b

Bayesian Error (RMSE): 0.498. Result ID: 69e720a447f34ce924cccb39.

[Reporting paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7c421e209131cea8d346.md>)

[Method origin paper](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa70d61e209131cea4d909.md>)

[Implementation](<https://github.com/mistralai/mistral-src>)

Recorded evaluation configuration: {"Confidence Elicitation Method":"Hybrid"}. This record does not assert independent reproduction.

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