# Optimal Strategy in the Werewolf Game: A Theoretical Study

Source: [Optimal Strategy in the Werewolf Game: A Theoretical Study](<https://www.sota2.com/research/paper/68fa7cfd1e209131cea90fe3>)

Collection index: [llms.txt](<https://www.sota2.com/research/llms.txt>)

Data updated: 2025-10-28T10:40:15.178Z

Authors: ST Wang

Published: 2024-08-30T10:24:45.000Z

## Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the optimal strategies in the Werewolf Game-a widely played strategic social deduction game involving two opposing factions-from a game-theoretic perspective. We consider two scenarios: the game without a prophet and the game with a prophet. In the scenario without a prophet, we propose an enhanced strategy called \`\`random strategy+'' that significantly improves the werewolf group's winning probability over conventional random strategies. In the scenario with a prophet, we reformulate the game as an extensive-form Bayesian game under a specific constraint, and derive the prophet's optimal strategy that induces a Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium (PBE). This study provides a rigorous analytical framework for modeling the Werewolf Game and offers broader insights into strategic decision-making under asymmetric and incomplete information.

## Recorded benchmark results

A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage.

- [Traitor win probability estimation on The Traitors Game Small configurations Migdał value based (n \<= 11)](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/traitor-win-probability-estimation-on-the-traitors-game-small-configurations-migda-value-based-n-11.md>): Traitor win probability estimation; The Traitors Game Small configurations Migdał value based (n \<= 11); Traitor Win Probability: 100.

- [Traitor win probability estimation on The Traitors Game Televised range configurations 15 \<= n \<= 25 Migdał value based](<https://www.sota2.com/research/sota/traitor-win-probability-estimation-on-the-traitors-game-televised-range-configurations-15-n-25-migda-value-based.md>): Traitor win probability estimation; The Traitors Game Televised range configurations 15 \<= n \<= 25 Migdał value based; Win Probability: 99.9.

## Original sources and implementation

[Original paper](<https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.17177>)

[PDF](<https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.17177.pdf>)