# Just rotate it! Uncertainty estimation in closed-source models via multiple queries Source: [Just rotate it! Uncertainty estimation in closed-source models via multiple queries]() Collection index: [llms.txt]() Data updated: 2025-10-27T06:34:03.698Z Authors: Konstantinos Pitas, Julyan Arbel Published: 2024-05-22T17:45:38.000Z ## Abstract We propose a simple and effective method to estimate the uncertainty of closed-source deep neural network image classification models. Given a base image, our method creates multiple transformed versions and uses them to query the top-1 prediction of the closed-source model. We demonstrate significant improvements in the calibration of uncertainty estimates compared to the naive baseline of assigning 100\\% confidence to all predictions. While we initially explore Gaussian perturbations, our empirical findings indicate that natural transformations, such as rotations and elastic deformations, yield even better-calibrated predictions. Furthermore, through empirical results and a straightforward theoretical analysis, we elucidate the reasons behind the superior performance of natural transformations over Gaussian noise. Leveraging these insights, we propose a transfer learning approach that further improves our calibration results. ## Recorded benchmark results A research result applies to its stated dataset, split, metric and evaluation configuration. Compare like-for-like settings, preserve the metric's unit and direction, and distinguish paper-reported results from independent reproduction. The best result recorded here is not a claim of exhaustive, current global coverage. ## Original sources and implementation [Original paper]() [PDF]()